The Quarterly By-Country Forecasts from Oxford Economics have been updated on NFPA’s member hub. See the latest outlooks for over 60 different countries. Highlights from the latest reports include:
- US: “Manufacturing output is expected to expand 1.3% in 2025, driven by growth in the high-tech goods sector. In 2026, manufacturing output is forecast at 2.5% growth, again driven by growth in the high-tech goods sector.”
- Eurozone: “We no longer expect an industrial production recovery in 2025, with industrial value-added growth forecast at just 0.2%, a 1.8ppt downward revision from our Q4 2024 update. Weak domestic demand has delayed the rebound, while structural challenges, like the erosion of EU competitiveness and rising competition from China, add further pressure. China and other Asian economies increasingly compete with EU industry, particularly in Germany and Italy, across a growing range of product categories.”
- Canada: “We now expect industrial value-added output in Canada to contract by 1.5% in 2025. The US-Canada trade war is likely to plunge Canada’s economy into a deep recession that will continue into 2026. We expect a 25% tariff on nearly all imports of goods from Canada to take effect in April. We expect a lower tariff (of 10%) on imports of energy and for transportation goods to be exempt from the tariffs.”
- China: “Industrial growth in China surpassed expectations at the end of last year, but we expect it to peter out over the coming quarters. Strong momentum going into the year has led us to revise up our industrial value-added growth forecast to 4.0% in 2025, up from 3.6% in our Q4 2024 update. But sequential growth is expected to slow considerably through the course of the year, and we have also downgraded 2026 growth to 2.7% (from 3% last quarter).”
Additionally, Quarterly Industry Forecast Reports from Oxford Economics have been updated on NFPA’s member hub. Some quick insights include:
- Overview: “Industrial growth has accelerated globally from the lows of 2022 and 2023 and is on track to re-converge with GDP growth. The transition has however proven more incomplete in 2024 than forecast, and 2025 is shaping up to be a year that could broaden the liftoff or derail it entirely. “
- Construction: “Total US construction output is set to grow in 2025 but has been revised down, with our forecast now at 1.2%. Our forecast for GDP growth in 2025 now sits at 2% after having been revised lower as the policy mix of the Trump presidency begins to be enforced.”
- Motor Vehicles: “Global automotive sector growth is forecast at 0.6% this year. Europe will be the principal source of drag in global production amid ongoing regional industrial and consumer demand weakness.”
Oxford Economics produces quarterly forecast reports for 10+ industries. These reports highlight forecast drivers and constraints with upside and downside scenario outlooks. Industries covered include Construction, Motor Vehicles, Extraction, Electronics and Computers, and more. These reports additionally apply the industry forecasts to a handful of major market countries, such as Germany, United States, United Kingdom, China, Japan, and several others.
Download these reports and more from Oxford Economics with your NFPA member login: https://www.nfpa.com/global-forecast-oxford-economics.
For any questions, please contact Cecilia Bart at cbart@nfpa.com.